Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe027287d6570a328ab97626a0b7853c4be90ca9365414df813b3e1895ed2b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AGELITEof Insomnia, AGELITE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed AGELITE | 47c | 1,774$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.8 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Insomnia | 54c | 1,001$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.53 | 390 | 42.6%166 W · 224 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Insomnia | 54c | 516.32$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.98 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed Insomnia | 59c | 499.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Insomnia | 13c | 479.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Insomnia | 17c | 451.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed AGELITE | 50c | 449.22$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.62 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Insomnia | 32c | 392.15$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.38 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Insomnia | 55c | 361.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked AGELITE | 40c | 321.34$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.26 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…b8b9backed AGELITE | 48c | 308.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked AGELITE | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Insomnia | 47c | 268.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Insomnia | 67c | 251$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.77 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Insomnia | 41c | 218.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 240 | 32.1%77 W · 163 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed AGELITE | 65c | 217.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +15.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…6fa3backed Insomnia | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked AGELITE | 44c | 199.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…8d05backed Insomnia | 56c | 180.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Insomnia | 28c | 178.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Insomnia | 77c | 153.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed AGELITE | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee22…7054backed AGELITE | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Insomnia | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Insomnia | 13c | 143$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 287 | 43.2%124 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecb…52a5backed Insomnia | 77c | 137.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Insomnia | 60c | 133.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Insomnia | 31c | 130.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Insomnia | 56c | 125.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Insomnia | 56c | 114.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed AGELITE | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 223 | 46.6%104 W · 119 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…cd33backed Insomnia | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 430 | 59.8%257 W · 173 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed AGELITE | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 140 | 32.9%46 W · 94 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…ac0bbacked AGELITE | 68c | 98.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Insomnia | 11c | 94.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Insomnia | 56c | 88.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ab4abacked Insomnia | 54c | 88.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 254 | 44.9%114 W · 140 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed AGELITE | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed AGELITE | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Insomnia | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb3…9e69backed Insomnia | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed AGELITE | 53c | 72.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed AGELITE | 19c | 64.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Insomnia | 31c | 62.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…df38backed AGELITE | 48c | 62.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked AGELITE | 63c | 59.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 421 | 40.4%170 W · 251 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Insomnia | 31c | 58.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked AGELITE | 45c | 56.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 601 | 54.2%326 W · 275 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…b08fbacked Insomnia | 54c | 55.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed AGELITE | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked AGELITE | 46c | 51.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…bf0fbacked AGELITE | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed Insomnia | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked AGELITE | 46c | 50.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed AGELITE | 23c | 47.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed AGELITE | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…b4a2backed AGELITE | 60c | 37.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed AGELITE | 45c | 37.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…59d9backed Insomnia | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Insomnia | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 156 | 46.2%72 W · 84 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked AGELITE | 68c | 29.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 273 | 60.1%164 W · 109 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Insomnia | 54c | 28.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed AGELITE | 45c | 28.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed AGELITE | 44c | 27.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed AGELITE | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…ded6backed Insomnia | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…7510backed Insomnia | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed AGELITE | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 492 | 55.3%272 W · 220 L | +23.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Insomnia | 52c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed AGELITE | 66c | 23.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 375 | 45.6%171 W · 204 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…2c23backed Insomnia | 79c | 18.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 67.3%76 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed AGELITE | 66c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 207 | 55.6%115 W · 92 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stagethis page
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Insomnia (-2.5) vs AGELITE (+2.5)AGELITE won
- Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE - Map 1 WinnerInsomnia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.