Champions League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa beat Bologna?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe127ab4ee8e0b9e2edebe7fc26bc8512bd700079937f1d4740920fe7488db4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f5…e92cbacked Yes | 59c | 6,700$3,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…1150backed No | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 40c | 3,157$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.52 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 39c | 2,719$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.13 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…84bdbacked No | 41c | 1,600$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 39c | 1,578$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.87 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 60c | 1,191$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.19 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 59c | 1,019$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.44 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.17 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…9465backed No | 47c | 845.1$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…a3e2backed Yes | 60c | 634.55$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 60c | 544.28$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.71 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed No | 40c | 499.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd467…07d0backed No | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 40c | 425.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Yes | 60c | 342.84$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.14 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 63c | 317.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…366cbacked Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 47c | 285.74$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…f67ebacked Yes | 56c | 258.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 56c | 246.58$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…c0f3backed Yes | 57c | 215$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…b032backed No | 43c | 215$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Yes | 62c | 207.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 44c | 204.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…1032backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 35c | 185.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4933…82dabacked Yes | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 61c | 168.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…29aebacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…cdd5backed Yes | 60c | 165.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…6c29backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ef…2891backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…ef38backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked No | 42c | 157$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…806ebacked No | 41c | 156.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…a5dabacked Yes | 60c | 156$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…dad4backed Yes | 54c | 154.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 60c | 141.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 38c | 126$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 44c | 125.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 53c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8a…ebd9backed Yes | 53c | 109.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…0b77backed Yes | 61c | 104.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…3370backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…7dd4backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…b376backed Yes | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9ca0backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed No | 44c | 73.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 62cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…d5c1backed Yes | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…e40dbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bd72backed Yes | 60c | 49.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…745cbacked No | 44c | 45.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…a25abacked Yes | 63c | 34.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa2…07d3backed No | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fd…5ca7backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…d12fbacked Yes | 61c | 31.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Yes | 62c | 30.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4057…03b6backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 46c | 28.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d2…ad80backed Yes | 66c | 26.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 42c | 26.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629a…7d8cbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…71f4backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2a…2a69backed Yes | 62c | 23.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…ab13backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e65…88c4backed Yes | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa beat Bologna?this page
- Will Bologna beat Aston Villa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.