MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe730c57ffdb48263a67ffa23edbb9b1ea5cd3a3a208203b65f1a873827b529f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 163,223$85,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,653.3 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 49c | 100,000$48,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,993.26 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 39,984$17,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,989.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 10,204$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 7,967$4,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,744.49 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 6,881$3,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.69 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 6,379$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,888 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 4,159$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 48c | 3,200$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,724$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.16 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over | 49c | 1,050$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 975$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 47c | 630.19$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.19 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 476.25$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.02 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 48c | 412.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 53c | 366.55$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 48c | 358.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 51c | 338.53$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 45c | 291.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 66c | 285$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Over | 49c | 256.53$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Under | 52c | 227$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 5c | 211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 48c | 157.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 53c | 152.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 151$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…bd32backed Under | 71c | 139.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 49c | 138$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 132.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 25c | 97.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Over | 49c | 91.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 89.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 77.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 44c | 59.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 59.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…bed8backed Over | 49c | 57.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 52c | 56.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 44c | 55.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 47c | 50.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 44.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 50c | 43.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 49c | 42.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 45c | 41.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Under | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 51c | 32.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 41c | 28.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 28.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Under | 70c | 25.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbef…848cbacked Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 58c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 52c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…ad5bbacked Under | 56c | 18.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 65c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.