NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe811f4516af9f7abdc6f6c41c7eab2dd71a4b1e345793b51088ffa6c0912015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 3,056$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.37 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 2,691$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.65 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,563$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.46 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,091$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 55c | 1,018$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.18 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 51c | 564.29$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.79 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 51c | 507.84$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.84 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 52c | 462.29$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.14 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 346.05$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 50c | 216$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 52c | 141$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 141$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 45c | 133.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 46c | 115.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 44c | 101.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Over | 46c | 73.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e65…701cbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e7…54c9backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 49c | 50.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 48c | 40.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…4c95backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 57c | 38.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 38.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Under | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Under | 56c | 22.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Hawks won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Rockets vs. HawksRockets won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
- Tari Eason: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.