NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de4dd174d188d0ab60c036b38ffe9111f9cf03049062d7324a4340ff324317a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Rockets | 50c | 27,818$13,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,909.03 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Rockets | 48c | 21,000$10,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,819.97 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Hawks | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks | 52c | 10,988$5,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,713.96 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hawks | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Hawks | 50c | 5,776$2,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.55 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 51c | 5,621$2,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,862.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets | 49c | 2,450$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.08 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Rockets | 48c | 1,906$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.16 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Hawks | 11c | 1,200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Rockets | 52c | 966.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.01 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Hawks | 18c | 890.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.33 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Hawks | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Rockets | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Hawks | 57c | 789.47$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hawks | 47c | 778.78$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.02 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rockets | 42c | 653.45$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hawks | 51c | 613.58$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.78 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 51c | 536.04$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.41 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 51c | 503.31$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…b86ebacked Rockets | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…edacbacked Rockets | 50c | 225.15$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawks | 51c | 222.46$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Hawks | 33c | 216$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Hawks | 49c | 214$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Hawks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 53c | 203.78$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Rockets | 51c | 200.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Rockets | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Rockets | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Hawks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 45c | 184.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…b2b1backed Rockets | 50c | 129.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Hawks | 54c | 111.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 53c | 105.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Hawks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Rockets | 51c | 60.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Hawks | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Hawks | 54c | 55.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…26a7backed Rockets | 48c | 54.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Rockets | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Rockets | 50c | 52.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Hawks | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Hawks | 61c | 43.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Rockets | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 49c | 43.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Hawks | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Hawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Hawks | 55c | 41.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Hawks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Rockets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Hawks | 52c | 38.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets | 50c | 32.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Rockets | 49c | 29.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…278fbacked Hawks | 51c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Hawks | 51c | 23.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Hawks won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Rockets vs. HawksRockets won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
- Tari Eason: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.