TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Missouri State Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Missouri State Bearsof Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Missouri State Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,151 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed Missouri State Bears49c5,200$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,637.912,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Missouri State Bears44c3,998$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,221.361652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers52c3,788$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.592,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers57c2,329$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.514161%25 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c1,991$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.163638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3817…7d10backed Missouri State Bears46c1,859$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.9729845.3%135 W · 163 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Missouri State Bears44c1,560$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.174245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Missouri State Bears43c1,416$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.182,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers52c1,406$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.983,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers56c1,307$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.159845.9%45 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers54c1,154$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.661,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Missouri State Bears34c1,111$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.2655532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers54c1,101$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.5621149.3%104 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers66c1,056$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.045,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Missouri State Bears45c1,033$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.291,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers57c703.88$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.5192246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Missouri State Bears48c678.02$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.5718349.2%90 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c578.1$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.951,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee76…e67abacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers53c561.1$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3811362.8%71 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers57c521.8$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4379448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c482.55$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.331,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c396.54$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0916248.1%78 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Missouri State Bears46c349.5$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3277142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers37c335.51$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.811,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Missouri State Bears45c329.36$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.661,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Missouri State Bears45c328.96$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2683350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers53c327.48$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8462140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Missouri State Bears61c307.32$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.431,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers35c297.61$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1637246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers59c250.45$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7345351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers54c245.84$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.764548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c209.69$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5743053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Missouri State Bears44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Missouri State Bears46c199.72$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.851,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c199.09$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4449157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers57c178.8$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.274,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers14c141.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3914450%72 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers56c141.09$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3222950.7%116 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers45c140.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8325337.5%95 W · 158 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Missouri State Bears46c128.87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5925837.6%97 W · 161 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Missouri State Bears45c125.11$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2414049.3%69 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc14d…f8b4backed Missouri State Bears42c118.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.875933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers39c112.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2461446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers56c105.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.954,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers57c105.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ec…c21ebacked Missouri State Bears45c99.53$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.323243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Missouri State Bears45c99.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5216721%35 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers54c99.13$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5314546.9%68 W · 77 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c97.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.435,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers17c89.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.192,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Missouri State Bears44c85.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.022,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b05…25dfbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers53c80.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.635540%22 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d3…2d0fbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers57c76.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.433545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers49c64.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1793247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers34c51.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7294036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers37c50.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.411,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.714461.8%89 W · 55 L+0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Missouri State Bears46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2716755.7%93 W · 74 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers54c49.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1133445.8%153 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c3…9792backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers39c49.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3427055.6%150 W · 120 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers57c48.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.763354.5%18 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers30c47.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.561,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x005b…2947backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers54c45.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Missouri State Bears60c41.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.785438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Missouri State Bears46c38.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1182846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Missouri State Bears50c37.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7193447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Missouri State Bears46c36.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.511,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed Missouri State Bears46c35.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2811840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers56c34.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers57c34.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3821646.8%101 W · 115 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Missouri State Bears45c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1548551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Missouri State Bears45c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1530050.7%152 W · 148 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers68c31.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.591,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa0…be2dbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c27.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.871952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Missouri State Bears55c27.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.174459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe0…947cbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers55c26.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers68c20.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8952353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1027048.1%130 W · 140 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3831…7f10backed Missouri State Bears80c16.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.235554.5%30 W · 25 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.