Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf0ca32e153685a4277dc4dbba8c22155f1e543b2470181b553a671271ae9b04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 53c | 3,398$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 1,027$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,024$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 47c | 968.06$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 910.37$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 38c | 890.97$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.64 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 548.78$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 27c | 548.38$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 495.47$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 449.08$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked No | 64c | 390.27$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 353.34$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 325.53$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 305.68$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 282.1$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 267.51$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 252.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 252.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 54c | 244.51$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 208.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 34c | 205.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 174.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 166.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 161$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 159.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 156.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 150.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 149.14$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 48c | 132$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 131.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 63c | 131.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 130.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 33c | 130.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 128.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f2…a1cabacked Yes | 47c | 126.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 122.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 51c | 119.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 119$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 44c | 114.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 113.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 111.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 38c | 109.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes | 33c | 109.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 109.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 47c | 103.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 33c | 99.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 97.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…15f9backed Yes | 47c | 94.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 90.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 45c | 89.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 17c | 89.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 36c | 85.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 85.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 79.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 71.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 70.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 70.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…0bb8backed No | 66c | 68.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 47c | 63.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 61.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 52c | 58.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 57.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 49c | 57.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 56.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc6…076ebacked Yes | 36c | 56.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 54.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 73c | 52.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 52.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 49c | 49.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 49.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…74c9backed Yes | 34c | 48.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 48.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 34c | 46.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 45.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 30c | 45.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 31c | 44.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 66c | 44.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 31c | 43.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 25c | 43.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 41c | 42.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 42.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 41.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 41.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.