TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,528 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c5f…a235backed No53c3,398$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,61111148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c1,027$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.148,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c1,024$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3864,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes47c968.06$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.572,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No50c910.37$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.448,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes38c890.97$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.6465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No67c548.78$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.751,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes27c548.38$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0231454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23586949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes44c495.47$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes31c449.08$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.951,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff82…bd3cbacked No64c390.27$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.41866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c353.34$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.454,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c325.53$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.316,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c305.68$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.974,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13871649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14431936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c282.1$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.965,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes48c267.51$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.51,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes33c252.04$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes33c252.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No54c244.51$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4545162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c208.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.26,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes34c205.13$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes44c174.93$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.81,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c166.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No63c161$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.811,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No65c159.97$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No68c156.63$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4277555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes45c150.12$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.712,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No73c149.14$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.511,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes48c132$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3634853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes47c131.56$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.792,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No63c131.04$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8227841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes38c130.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.662,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf691…3ec1backed Yes33c130.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.323438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No68c128.97$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37f2…a1cabacked Yes47c126.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes19c122.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.251,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes51c119.02$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.811,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c119$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.855,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes44c114.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No62c113.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.444,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No67c111.21$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.081,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes38c109.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2530332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes33c109.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.713842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes49c109.91$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.111,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes47c103.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4526744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes33c99.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.639646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No66c97.48$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.392,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f66…15f9backed Yes47c94.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes32c90.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.083,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes45c89.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No67c89.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5522550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes17c89.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8781855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes36c85.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8117324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c85.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed Yes46c79.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c79.67$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.885,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No58c71.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes34c70.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No60c70.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.512,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e2b…0bb8backed No66c68.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.74825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5970…c99bbacked Yes47c63.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.691050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No62c61.22$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.322,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfac…a4febacked Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22532%8 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No52c58.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.062,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes32c57.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.344536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes49c57.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No66c56.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.32,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cc6…076ebacked Yes36c56.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No71c54.9$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8953855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No73c52.74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3742762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c52.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No68c51.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4710265.7%67 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8953…e093backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7d8…a8cebacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.59361.3%57 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed Yes49c49.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.44740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes34c49.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.657,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x39f3…74c9backed Yes34c48.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.391450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No51c48.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.831,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes34c46.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.782245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No61c45.73$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.712,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes30c45.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6657948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes31c44.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.093,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked No66c44.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1417352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes31c43.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8543441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9337…72c0backed Yes25c43.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87749.4%38 W · 39 L-10.8wins-0.14per pick63cpaid-25.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes41c42.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.425137.3%19 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c42.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4880050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No64c41.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No60c41.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.452,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes32c41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.121,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.