Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f6377e6cae9067b0a062fe45a49bf1a4f3e115639559f03fa5fc5447986c22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 1,155$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 1,059$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 715.44$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 39c | 699.64$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.89 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 620.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 472.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 448.56$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 55c | 409.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 397.29$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 39c | 372.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 306.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 298.23$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 298.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 282.1$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 37c | 276.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 52c | 215.36$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 209.16$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 207.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 69c | 204.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.29 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc4…eb39backed Yes | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 186.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 60c | 167.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 166.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 39c | 164.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 157.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 39c | 150.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 142.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 50c | 141.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 129.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 59c | 128.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 31c | 123$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 122.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 115.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 113.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 111.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 39c | 109.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 54c | 108.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6b…cf5ebacked No | 40c | 100.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 91.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 41c | 89.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 60c | 82.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 82.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 40c | 76.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 16c | 76.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 74.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 66.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 63.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 61.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 63c | 60.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 35c | 54.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 61c | 52.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…dc92backed No | 52c | 51.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 31c | 50.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 63c | 47.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 61c | 42.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 42.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 41.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 41.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 41.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 40.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 38c | 39.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 39.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 37.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…08ccbacked Yes | 58c | 35.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…2776backed Yes | 48c | 32.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 43c | 31.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ae…ab03backed Yes | 50c | 30.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked No | 59c | 24.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 79c | 23.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc6…076ebacked Yes | 49c | 23.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 49c | 22.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 22.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 57c | 20.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…329abacked No | 57c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.