TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,754
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,754 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c1,155$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.648,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes62c1,059$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.71,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No57c715.44$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.058,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No39c699.64$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.891,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes62c620.99$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.394,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No41c472.45$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.675,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c448.56$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.532,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes55c409.14$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.931,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c397.29$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No39c372.78$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.761,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No40c306.03$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.824,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes62c298.23$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.895,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c298.15$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No43c282.1$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.425,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x069b…3b3bbacked No37c276.98$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.562245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes52c215.36$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.684753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes74c209.16$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.566,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c207.73$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.259,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No69c204.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2939543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc4…eb39backed Yes57c199.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes33c186.53$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.211,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes60c167.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.122360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes22c166.26$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.361,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No39c164.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6635344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c157.66$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.363,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No39c150.33$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6331454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No32c142.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.854,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No50c141.87$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5133746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No66c129.87$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeab…aa66backed Yes59c128.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.841442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No31c123$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.531,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No11c122.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.281,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…9c58backed Yes64c120$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c115.33$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.731,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No40c113.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.832,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No39c111.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.052,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No39c109.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1957948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No54c108.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5770741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6b…cf5ebacked No40c100.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.144,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No44c91.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.182,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No41c89.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.444,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes69c86.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.961,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes60c82.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7975546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c82.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.529,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No40c76.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.731,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8471…5566backed No16c76.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13959%23 W · 16 L+7.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No54c74.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No55c66.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6336150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No40c63.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.242,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No39c61.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.082,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes63c60.3$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0120144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.755,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.323,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No35c54.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes61c52.47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.624050%20 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88a6…dc92backed No52c51.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed Yes31c50.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.714740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.543959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.99646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa8…5e72backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185137.3%19 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes59c49.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.496744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed Yes63c47.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.412052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No47c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2194066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes61c42.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7415152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No67c42.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1977555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes33c41.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c41.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes60c41.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.382,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No36c40.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.563,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe7…a709backed No38c39.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c39.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No28c37.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.666,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c35.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7e…08ccbacked Yes58c35.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…2776backed Yes48c32.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.191070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No43c31.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.682,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes64c31.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.591,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No68c31.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.252416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ae…ab03backed Yes50c30.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-46.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No40c25.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1266944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked No59c24.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.27850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No79c23.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cc6…076ebacked Yes49c23.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No49c22.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes63c22.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.393,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…68d3backed No57c20.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.846053.3%32 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa61e…329abacked No57c20.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3382…a6e4backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1327248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes77c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9961676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.