NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf944ac69e9fe89261d3ebad71e9af3278896470e9ea8f839cf0676a00921480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 13,662$6,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,632.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 51c | 9,696$4,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,751.24 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 6,649$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.55 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 51c | 3,700$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Over | 53c | 3,250$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.5 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 50c | 2,724$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.79 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under | 52c | 2,632$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.64 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 2,176$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.85 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,865$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Over | 51c | 690.23$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.23 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 684$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 627$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 499.97$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked Under | 41c | 350$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -12.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Under | 52c | 243.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…2de4backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…b69ebacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Under | 49c | 97.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…dc8bbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Over | 49c | 48.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Under | 52c | 47.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 25.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 53c | 20.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Jazz won
- Jazz vs. LakersLakers won
- Jazz vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-13.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.