NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-13.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9a230e2037da0cd0d79e0f4db1493d4865c28af59f8345d51ab4d257316dfd

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lakersof Lakers, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,933 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9c6f…89b9backed Jazz	54c	17,460$9,493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,493	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lakers	45c	8,581$3,886 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,694.65	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers	46c	7,938$3,644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,294.5	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers	46c	5,055$2,325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,729.7	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz	53c	4,000$2,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,120	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Lakers	47c	3,717$1,748 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,969.47	131	53.4%70 W · 61 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	53c	3,504$1,856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,856.35	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Lakers	47c	3,404$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,804.26	171	47.4%81 W · 90 L	+13.7wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Jazz	53c	2,788$1,490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,489.64	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jazz	55c	2,196$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.61	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Jazz	54c	1,860$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers	44c	1,693$739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$953.53	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers	48c	1,221$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640.82	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Lakers	48c	729.17$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.17	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	-5.0wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Lakers	46c	675$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.5	240	48.3%116 W · 124 L	-13.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Lakers	46c	650$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Lakers	46c	611.11$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x685e…6f30backed Jazz	54c	450$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243	107	57.9%62 W · 45 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1181…8ce4backed Jazz	55c	304.98$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.59	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf4…d167backed Jazz	53c	226.18$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.5	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef1a…d048backed Jazz	67c	199.67$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.78	109	43.1%47 W · 62 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Jazz	55c	182$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc5…9cf9backed Jazz	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Lakers	46c	143$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.22	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Lakers	46c	140$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.95	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Lakers	47c	127.66$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.66	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…6319backed Jazz	53c	125.8$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Lakers	44c	90$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.4	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…748cbacked Jazz	55c	83.33$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Lakers	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Jazz	55c	50.91$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers	26c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc597…4ee7backed Jazz	74c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-3.8wins	-0.19per pick	64cpaid	-37%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Lakers	48c	37.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	146	54.8%80 W · 66 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be8…f449backed Jazz	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-5.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Lakers	46c	30.01$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.3	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a9…b9e9backed Jazz	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc609…f29abacked Jazz	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Lakers (-13.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event