Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfdf4f18ac71a0614d83e949d0cfd876c4eece04882b6b2ecab194e73a23aa68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 647.04$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.62 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 404.52$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 367.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 42c | 357.78$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 250.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 161.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 157.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 45c | 139.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 130.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 97.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 94.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 50c | 93.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 38c | 92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 44c | 84.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 50.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 47c | 45.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 54c | 31.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…0020backed Yes | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 42c | 28.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 25.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 60c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 17.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.