Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa47aaab4e9338eccffb49a7572c72ba0944569c28b2714adb0f9212b934a2cc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 2,699$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.23 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 684.34$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 422.17$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 315.82$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.89 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 262.52$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 66c | 254.8$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 208.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 182.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 75c | 176.62$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 69c | 173.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 165.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 152.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 135.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 132$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 117.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 29c | 113.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 54c | 112.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 95.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 82.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 80.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 73.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 50c | 71.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 66c | 69.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 54c | 68.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 36c | 67.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 34c | 59.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 53c | 56.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…584dbacked Yes | 56c | 53.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 67c | 53.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 47.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 45.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 62c | 44.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 65c | 41.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 39.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 39.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 66c | 34.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 51c | 33.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 28.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 68c | 28.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…a04ebacked No | 68c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 25.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 23.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 64c | 19.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.