Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0971d7d82dfb7a97e969d3731bbd0fd8d4a23a23270550681af8dc0da03927a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,604 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Over | 18c | 12,815$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.98 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Over | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 18c | 1,193$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.26 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 19c | 1,155$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.48 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…9118backed Under | 77c | 630.3$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…24f9backed Over | 23c | 630.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 558.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed Under | 79c | 172.63$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 18c | 91.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 14c | 80.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Over | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 19c | 77.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b8…6253backed Over | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 19c | 52.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Over | 21c | 49.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 78c | 35.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.