Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3947086bf7c21b8926e8edaa7ff5e56d53e007594ee5d0357e166d6ec49bb69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,052 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 10,642$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.76 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 19c | 4,425$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.71 | 264 | 45.8%121 W · 143 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 3,369$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.77 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 74c | 2,080$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.8 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 10c | 2,071$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 65c | 1,155$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.22 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Under | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 65c | 933.35$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 80c | 909.5$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.36 | 594 | 41.8%248 W · 346 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…3973backed Under | 2c | 901.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 26c | 808$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.06 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 784.38$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 699.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 76c | 566.22$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 14c | 526$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 19c | 510.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 68c | 470.18$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.18 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Over | 72c | 460.35$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 80c | 456.46$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 26c | 440$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 591 | 36.5%216 W · 375 L | -30.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 26c | 432.01$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 21c | 291.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Over | 72c | 199$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 26c | 198.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 18c | 150.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 80c | 133.31$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ec…735abacked Over | 69c | 129.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Under | 19c | 119.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 114.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 30c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 80c | 105.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e8…7c26backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c68…38aebacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Under | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 27c | 89.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…e132backed Over | 75c | 87.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…06febacked Over | 79c | 81.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 67c | 79.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…0eb7backed Over | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Over | 71c | 70.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked Over | 75c | 67.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 80c | 51.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…74dcbacked Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 80c | 43.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Over | 80c | 39.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Over | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Over | 73c | 32.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…e294backed Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 65c | 30.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Over | 75c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa060…0747backed Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 80c | 22.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 75c | 22.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked Over | 68c | 17.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 72c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Over | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.