TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$294,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,649 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Over34c73,870$25,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,183.756657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd26e…6d8dbacked Under66c70,644$46,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,751.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under66c50,166$32,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,272.9113245.5%60 W · 72 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under65c48,638$31,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,814.413641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over31c32,870$10,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,065.081,99443.9%875 W · 1,119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over34c32,501$10,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,976.0226047.7%124 W · 136 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over34c28,823$9,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,890.64641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under66c15,180$10,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,167.4229350.5%148 W · 145 L+13.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Under66c15,152$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.525466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over34c7,500$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5509348.4%45 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over34c7,239$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.268647.7%41 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over35c6,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.995550.9%28 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over30c5,448$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.841,51140.2%608 W · 903 L-6.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1414…ae7bbacked Under74c4,100$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.934365.1%28 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36013548.9%66 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3601942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Under65c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40010742.1%45 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Under65c3,846$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.151258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Over35c3,586$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.15433.3%18 W · 36 L-8.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over38c2,348$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.336728.4%19 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Over4c2,237$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over22c1,700$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3684513.3%6 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Under66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.151942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Under77c1,500$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9721938.4%84 W · 135 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Under66c1,204$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.211586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick61cpaid+27.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under66c1,200$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.962373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over34c1,195$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.144020%8 W · 32 L-9.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-59.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over32c1,177$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.4115038.7%58 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over20c1,129$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.375018%9 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over33c1,015$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3357145.1%32 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed Under65c1,005$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.752748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6867…f8d2backed Under65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.231361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+96.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over34c699.98$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9913349.6%66 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Over35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over35c562$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.649748.5%47 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over20c548$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.66633.3%22 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over34c544.12$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1853050%15 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Over33c538.81$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…bde1backed Under66c518.18$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Under64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520644.7%92 W · 114 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over23c482.54$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2246048.5%223 W · 237 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under64c459.43$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.39683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+55.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf277…9a5fbacked Under70c428.03$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.412157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f11…ce9fbacked Under63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1483562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Over35c395.07$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over35c383.96$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6150247.2%237 W · 265 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Over35c383.85$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.443844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Under65c382.58$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5813349.6%66 W · 67 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over35c371.43$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13012242.6%52 W · 70 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Over36c361.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c10…829bbacked Under74c358.59$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.451258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over36c347.22$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1257051.4%36 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0310249%50 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e3…68c1backed Under66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.03650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Under79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637463.5%47 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bcb…5731backed Under63c299.99$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1113167.7%21 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over31c281.53$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3620643.2%89 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9196…3176backed Under72c277.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97b3…4a85backed Under62c270$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.95550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Under70c260$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783482.4%28 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Over34c244.4$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.14632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Under64c234.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.384165.9%27 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Under66c227.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.271861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under63c218.93$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8138748.3%187 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Over35c214.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756243.5%27 W · 35 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over22c212.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9321217%36 W · 176 L-37.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-69.3%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x1edf…2392backed Under63c199.96$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Under63c199.8$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9310164.4%65 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over35c195.53$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8813453%71 W · 63 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Over36c191.7$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.013941%16 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4458…d13bbacked Over34c184.61$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over35c168.52$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.985955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over15c168.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2838253.9%206 W · 176 L+21.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under66c160$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d90…de63backed Over38c159$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.42250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over34c155.22$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.189948.5%48 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over35c155.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2911650%58 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed Under65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Under65c153.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.811650%8 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+100.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under66c151.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.516950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f43…a50dbacked Over38c151$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x277e…259ebacked Under67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.252944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Over34c147$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.981947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8c…f82dbacked Over38c146$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015236.8%56 W · 96 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Over35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505250%26 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c3…3a41backed Under72c139.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1002…1ef5backed Over36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020655.3%114 W · 92 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed Over37c135$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.954141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f85…b0d4backed Over34c134$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f4f…07dcbacked Over38c129$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4819…abcebacked Over37c126$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf6…7df6backed Over36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa395…ea34backed Over38c122$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under72c121.05$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6742438%161 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over36c119.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5740350.9%205 W · 198 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde66…be48backed Over36c117.28$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.053842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.