Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x179d3bae4700a31f1f3ab3e2bb98e928153714c9c66b04e8f8d48adba798616e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenof Arsenal FC, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,399 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arsenal FC | 30c | 1,266$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.7 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…2d62backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arsenal FC | 45c | 905$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.25 | 591 | 36.5%216 W · 375 L | -30.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 881.1$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.39 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Arsenal FC | 23c | 731.96$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…04b6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 70c | 711.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Arsenal FC | 41c | 633.95$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…6cc0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 588.74$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arsenal FC | 28c | 466.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 416.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 309.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 489 | 47.6%233 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 71c | 281.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Arsenal FC | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Arsenal FC | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 69c | 165.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…2eb8backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Arsenal FC | 30c | 134.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Arsenal FC | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Arsenal FC | 42c | 119.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Arsenal FC | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 116.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0459…437fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 70c | 111.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…1ab3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 80.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Arsenal FC | 68c | 70.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Arsenal FC | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 71c | 67.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa6…e929backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 67c | 64.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Arsenal FC | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Arsenal FC | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 43.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…d507backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 62c | 35.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Arsenal FC | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…6bcfbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 61c | 27.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 67c | 21.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…6823backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 70c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 631 | 50.2%317 W · 314 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.