TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fe8…3549backed Under68c25,507$17,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,344.75520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-70.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over28c12,344$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,893.813,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over32c8,089$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,500.1876234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5f…4b52backed Under77c7,899$6,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,082.262871.4%20 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick76cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over32c4,500$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,06056547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over32c4,290$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,917.28037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Under68c3,682$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.544443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over32c2,798$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.8244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under79c2,351$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.767458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Under68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.879854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Over29c1,722$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.829532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Under63c1,579$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over37c1,568$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.821,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Over33c999.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over30c967$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.914254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb90…e696backed Over62c943.92$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over31c758.51$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.081,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over32c751.88$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.478336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Over32c593.58$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.586533.8%22 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over31c500$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3453452.9%18 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+85.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over29c483.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.2927726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0666…d31abacked Over64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.753240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under68c399.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.9916850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over32c361$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4818545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over32c357.53$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8722829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5822747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe105…1efbbacked Over34c295.6$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under70c293.71$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.64852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over32c203.67$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.518746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea93…d9bdbacked Over29c200$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+90.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b89…634ebacked Under71c199.14$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b9…6ae2backed Over60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x414a…597ebacked Over33c160.7$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over31c160$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.213852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1054440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over32c110.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1225850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4527142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over26c103.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.482,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6811056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed Over62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7013066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc53e…a45cbacked Over31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684951%25 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c78…0f7bbacked Over31c99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+123.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over31c96.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7711952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b3…5c29backed Over33c90.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.912272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over30c89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.437759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Over30c83.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3318840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.676439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…a98bbacked Over30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.672347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over27c62.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.731,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under71c39.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1710945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over52c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.817962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43d6…a56abacked Under70c21.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3513…c19dbacked Under53c20.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a7…9725backed Over60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1304…cce4backed Over63c17.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83df…2a73backed Over64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Under69c14.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.332955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.