Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d8dd8a808cd34a14a8c1f21d3c6d7be4d55fc45e96bbda329352033a16936c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed Under | 68c | 25,507$17,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,344.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 12,344$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,893.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 32c | 8,089$2,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500.18 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 77c | 7,899$6,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,082.26 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 32c | 4,500$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 32c | 4,290$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,917.2 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 68c | 3,682$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.54 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 32c | 2,798$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.82 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,351$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.76 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.87 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 29c | 1,722$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.82 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Under | 63c | 1,579$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 1,568$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.82 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Over | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 30c | 967$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.9 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…e696backed Over | 62c | 943.92$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 31c | 758.51$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.08 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 32c | 751.88$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.47 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 32c | 593.58$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.58 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 29c | 483.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.29 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 68c | 399.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.99 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 32c | 361$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.48 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 32c | 357.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.87 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 34c | 295.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 70c | 293.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 32c | 203.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…d9bdbacked Over | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…634ebacked Under | 71c | 199.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…6ae2backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…597ebacked Over | 33c | 160.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 31c | 160$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 32c | 110.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 103.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c78…0f7bbacked Over | 31c | 99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…5c29backed Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 30c | 89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 62.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 71c | 39.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Under | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 53c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…cce4backed Over | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…2a73backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 69c | 14.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.