NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc12dab349877a3512c4721db5d9a0d3c28b0a4fb395a7a223f7f2bdec3ffb720
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,245$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 53c | 1,211$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.63 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 515.69$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.51 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 61c | 449.27$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.06 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 36c | 365.54$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 61c | 286$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.46 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 42c | 271.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 234.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Under | 24c | 231.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 154$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…e036backed Under | 57c | 122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 68c | 116$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 43c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 71.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 64.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…a82dbacked Over | 42c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb14f…dd7dbacked Over | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…0938backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 41c | 45.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30df…e573backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 59c | 20.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…ccfdbacked Under | 66c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. GrizzliesWizards won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.