NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e493c3cd953e45a632f4f5dde639ccd37f97743203be9c1eb01fbb155a4803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Grizzlies, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,380,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,375,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,380,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2e7…be51backed Wizards | 52c | 1,346,825$700,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646,019.13 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Grizzlies | 48c | 504,659$242,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242,189.89 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Grizzlies | 48c | 478,825$229,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229,836.07 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Grizzlies | 48c | 250,000$120,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120,000 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 47c | 46,059$21,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,629.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 48c | 30,442$14,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,651.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 22,250$10,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,680 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…3e07backed Wizards | 52c | 8,038$4,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,843.83 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Wizards | 1c | 7,273$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,199.89 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Grizzlies | 49c | 6,508$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.76 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Wizards | 60c | 6,296$3,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.78 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 47c | 4,303$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.12 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…c4acbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 2,857$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Grizzlies | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Grizzlies | 49c | 1,824$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.76 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 1,683$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 1,664$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.66 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Wizards | 60c | 1,037$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.67 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 898.5$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.56 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Grizzlies | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Wizards | 50c | 791.81$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.58 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Wizards | 53c | 750$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…13bfbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 650$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.5 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Wizards | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Wizards | 3c | 600$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies | 47c | 530.69$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Grizzlies | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies | 47c | 400$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Grizzlies | 51c | 396.52$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.18 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Grizzlies | 19c | 380.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Grizzlies | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 49c | 162.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Wizards | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Grizzlies | 53c | 128.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies | 50c | 111.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Wizards | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Wizards | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 51c | 99.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 50c | 88.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…9514backed Grizzlies | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Grizzlies | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…c85dbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Wizards | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…b74abacked Grizzlies | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…05ecbacked Wizards | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked Wizards | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Grizzlies | 52c | 37.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Wizards | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wizards | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…869dbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 29.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 166 | 53%88 W · 78 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Grizzlies | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. GrizzliesWizards won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.