NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ea8fbd18ae5ba6befdceba711e5ddc6836ed0a3eff79a3d3ee0e77363d1b92e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 50c | 13,939$6,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,029.57 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 6,530$3,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,291 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 52c | 5,552$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.08 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 51c | 2,090$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.37 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 1,687$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 901.08$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.54 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Under | 66c | 550$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 513$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…3a3fbacked Over | 49c | 479.4$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.47 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 450$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 410.4$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.28 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 45c | 300.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.02 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 55c | 281.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 49c | 202$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 50c | 200.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 198$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 197.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Under | 51c | 149.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 144.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Under | 31c | 139.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 115$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 114.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Over | 50c | 104.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 38c | 77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 51c | 44.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Over | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…39a4backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. GrizzliesWizards won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.