NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf75d6b7567823e11ae750a1de4ca9d2489e4a8ff955402bce2d4e91d30824ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Grizzlies, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Wizards | 44c | 8,419$3,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,714.69 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Grizzlies | 50c | 5,786$2,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,891.03 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 3,813$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.29 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Grizzlies | 56c | 2,519$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.64 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Wizards | 50c | 2,347$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.5 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 47c | 1,556$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 49c | 1,404$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies | 55c | 1,079$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.17 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 53c | 994$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.82 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…ddd3backed Grizzlies | 56c | 621.15$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies | 53c | 549.57$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.27 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Wizards | 52c | 411.84$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.71 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Grizzlies | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Grizzlies | 55c | 220$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Wizards | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Wizards | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Wizards | 50c | 199.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Grizzlies | 50c | 164.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…dc0fbacked Wizards | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Grizzlies | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Wizards | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Wizards | 50c | 117.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Wizards | 46c | 110.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Wizards | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Wizards | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Grizzlies | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Wizards | 49c | 78.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Wizards | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Wizards | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Wizards | 50c | 35.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 48c | 30.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Wizards | 48c | 26.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Wizards | 50c | 25.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Grizzlies | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. GrizzliesWizards won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.