NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95817e77ba0fc158b85b98c87268b6558487f8cb1189d767353af614a44dec35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Grizzlies, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Grizzlies | 47c | 70,000$32,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,899.97 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 53c | 30,515$16,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,342.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Wizards | 53c | 25,721$13,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,088.91 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 53c | 11,596$6,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,502.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Wizards | 53c | 4,397$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.59 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4057…b6a8backed Grizzlies | 48c | 4,193$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…d14ebacked Grizzlies | 48c | 4,179$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards | 53c | 2,584$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.46 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Wizards | 53c | 2,300$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Grizzlies | 13c | 676$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 54c | 610.42$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Grizzlies | 47c | 486.97$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.88 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…6c62backed Grizzlies | 48c | 458.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Wizards | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Grizzlies | 10c | 255$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 47c | 254.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Wizards | 55c | 210$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Wizards | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Wizards | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 44c | 125.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Wizards | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Wizards | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Grizzlies | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Grizzlies | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Wizards | 53c | 90.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Grizzlies | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Wizards | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…bd4bbacked Wizards | 53c | 57.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies | 46c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Wizards | 52c | 38.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Wizards | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 47c | 27.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e41…67b8backed Wizards | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Wizards | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. GrizzliesWizards won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.