NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a82785fa60681b9aaf7620e4eb503c6a5c953ece9bc9e17374ec3fdffb77446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Grizzlies, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Wizards | 49c | 2,933$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.97 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Grizzlies | 51c | 2,710$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.1 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Grizzlies | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 44c | 2,351$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…402dbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 1,410$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 43c | 1,127$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Wizards | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies | 57c | 977$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.89 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Wizards | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Wizards | 46c | 346$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.84 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies | 53c | 285.87$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Grizzlies | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Grizzlies | 58c | 191$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Grizzlies | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 49c | 115.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 52c | 111.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 49c | 103.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Grizzlies | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Grizzlies | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards | 45c | 66.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Wizards | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Grizzlies | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Grizzlies | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Grizzlies | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Grizzlies | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 55c | 24.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-13.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. GrizzliesWizards won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.