TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,528 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa25…05e8backed Under59c8,200$4,836 inLost-$4,835.986352.4%33 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over45c6,632$2,965 inWon+$3,666.912,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under37c3,711$1,381 inLost-$1,380.581,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over52c2,910$1,513 inWon+$1,397.011,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a3…ea61backed Under48c2,300$1,104 inLost-$1,104333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Under39c1,921$745 inLost-$7458748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under36c1,517$549 inLost-$549.332,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under53c1,032$547 inLost-$546.9156646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Over51c999.99$510 inWon+$49048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over53c979.94$519 inWon+$461.343,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff63…5aa1backed Under48c625$300 inLost-$3003542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Over34c407.39$139 inWon+$268.888156.8%46 W · 35 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under37c386.71$142 inLost-$142.461,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under48c300$144 inLost-$1441,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Under48c208.33$100 inLost-$10023948.5%116 W · 123 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.681,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c174.53$82 inLost-$81.769,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under35c138$48 inLost-$47.612,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over34c121.09$41 inWon+$79.921,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under48c49.9$24 inLost-$23.951,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under35c30$11 inLost-$10.51,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Under46c30$14 inLost-$13.7335352.4%185 W · 168 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under47c25.62$12 inLost-$12.0493849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc95f…357fbacked Under48c25$12 inLost-$1216852.4%88 W · 80 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.