Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Sonay Kartal vs Elena Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc14450964d974c31764b5dfd9228b05b249861b0a806628a8fa0ab7c4eb8fd90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elena Rybakinaof Sonay Kartal, Elena Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,775 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Sonay Kartal | 9c | 20,502$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.05 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sonay Kartal | 13c | 8,810$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.6 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Sonay Kartal | 16c | 7,146$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.35 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Sonay Kartal | 6c | 6,594$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.62 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…5825backed Sonay Kartal | 16c | 4,682$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Sonay Kartal | 15c | 4,300$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.99 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Sonay Kartal | 5c | 3,542$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…84c1backed Sonay Kartal | 6c | 3,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Sonay Kartal | 7c | 2,900$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Sonay Kartal | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…95dabacked Sonay Kartal | 10c | 2,813$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.65 | 453 | 43.9%199 W · 254 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Sonay Kartal | 15c | 2,571$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.24 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Sonay Kartal | 4c | 2,269$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Sonay Kartal | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 168 | 30.4%51 W · 117 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Sonay Kartal | 16c | 1,977$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.31 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Sonay Kartal | 14c | 1,846$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.2 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…14eabacked Sonay Kartal | 17c | 1,787$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sonay Kartal | 5c | 1,494$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonay Kartal | 11c | 1,423$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 1,418$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.7 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sonay Kartal | 2c | 1,400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Sonay Kartal | 14c | 1,100$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Sonay Kartal | 9c | 1,084$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sonay Kartal | 14c | 1,073$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…0d19backed Sonay Kartal | 4c | 867.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 428 | 39.7%170 W · 258 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…0a42backed Sonay Kartal | 5c | 800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…3f91backed Sonay Kartal | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Sonay Kartal | 14c | 690.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Sonay Kartal | 14c | 633.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Sonay Kartal | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…434ebacked Sonay Kartal | 15c | 620.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Sonay Kartal | 19c | 600$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…b5fdbacked Sonay Kartal | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…40b1backed Sonay Kartal | 14c | 548.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Sonay Kartal | 9c | 533.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sonay Kartal | 7c | 435.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…0d6cbacked Sonay Kartal | 7c | 424.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Sonay Kartal | 15c | 392.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sonay Kartal | 6c | 335.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 270$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7796…5da7backed Sonay Kartal | 17c | 254.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 254$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sonay Kartal | 16c | 249.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Sonay Kartal | 16c | 238.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 232.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 707 | 29.1%206 W · 501 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Sonay Kartal | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…d872backed Sonay Kartal | 7c | 187.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sonay Kartal | 13c | 182.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Sonay Kartal | 16c | 182$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sonay Kartal | 16c | 176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Sonay Kartal | 8c | 175.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Sonay Kartal | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Sonay Kartal | 8c | 138.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 128 | 35.2%45 W · 83 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 100.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Sonay Kartal | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x674c…6dabbacked Sonay Kartal | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Sonay Kartal | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Sonay Kartal | 17c | 81.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Sonay Kartal | 21c | 72.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Sonay Kartal | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 336 | 51.5%173 W · 163 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Sonay Kartal vs Elena Rybakinathis page
- Kartal vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Kartal vs RybakinaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.