TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,486 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x20d6…3856backed Yes48c4,813$2,310 inLost-$2,310.223351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0f…b9d0backed No52c3,585$1,864 inWon+$1,720.9510439.4%41 W · 63 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd1f…9136backed No52c1,357$706 inWon+$651.3513850%69 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No51c777.39$396 inWon+$380.9225249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes49c733.39$359 inLost-$359.362,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes48c399.99$192 inLost-$1926,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc908…2f61backed No52c284.62$148 inWon+$136.6212154.5%66 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e73…b728backed No51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.085856.9%33 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Yes21c142.02$29 inLost-$29.2142241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No53c137.37$73 inWon+$64.818,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Yes44c134.14$59 inLost-$59.0290446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes49c125.01$61 inLost-$611,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked No53c114.25$60 inWon+$54.254862.5%30 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes51c98.04$50 inLost-$507444.6%33 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4bd…0ce0backed Yes52c91.04$48 inLost-$47.683672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75b6…8ad0backed Yes50c74$37 inLost-$3713345.9%61 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes38c63.09$24 inLost-$24.145,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes47c59.25$28 inLost-$27.851,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe44c…73bfbacked No52c50$26 inWon+$24837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc51…245abacked Yes49c44$22 inLost-$21.562050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed No59c39$23 inWon+$15.956,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951a…8c9dbacked No57c29.54$17 inWon+$12.73023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes51c24.24$12 inLost-$12.3959749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590a…c459backed No51c23.29$12 inWon+$11.4111451.8%59 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.