MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a30a2960bdc4329c04eed97674d3437543fed541b035da43c577a19b08d2f1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 70c | 1,963$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.08 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 66c | 1,504$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.52 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 57c | 1,343$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.62 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 1,146$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 801.65$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 625.26$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 582.3$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21df…fdbcbacked Under | 44c | 560.32$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.55 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 315.4$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 32c | 275.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 68c | 270.76$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 237.2$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 225$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.21 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 56c | 186.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 158.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 142.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked Under | 47c | 112.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…da6abacked Under | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 32c | 76.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Under | 33c | 74.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 36c | 63.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…73bfbacked Under | 54c | 63.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 60c | 61.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…6d43backed Under | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 54.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 30c | 48.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 34c | 37.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 67c | 33.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Under | 33c | 32.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Over | 74c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 28.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 68c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 64c | 16.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.