TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,749 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Over30c10,237$3,071 inLost-$3,071.254,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Under70c10,000$7,000 inWon+$3,0004949%24 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over30c1,190$357 inLost-$356.955,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over10c1,091$110 inLost-$110.2312,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under70c599.98$420 inWon+$179.996,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae60…1f06backed Over30c322.1$97 inLost-$96.631850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under70c214.29$150 inWon+$64.2987850.5%443 W · 435 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Under71c200$142 inWon+$5821149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over32c148.5$48 inLost-$47.521,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under70c117.96$82 inWon+$35.7311,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc08c…4b12backed Over20c100$20 inLost-$205945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed Under70c100$70 inWon+$3012858.6%75 W · 53 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under79c69.35$55 inWon+$14.792,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under75c58.45$44 inWon+$14.376,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under70c51$36 inWon+$15.329354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over30c45$13 inLost-$13.54,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under70c40$28 inWon+$122,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under74c40$30 inWon+$10.48,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over28c39$11 inLost-$11.066,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Under70c33.99$24 inWon+$10.236250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under70c26$18 inWon+$7.81,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c7a…f619backed Under70c17.14$12 inWon+$5.143658.3%21 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under70c14.99$10 inWon+$4.541,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.