MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11f037d376ba41a607aa9db40aa54d656c523ae928fe9577eea5ca7f54b8cd97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 34c | 4,978$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.42 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 2,715$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.22 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Under | 1c | 1,220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 36c | 1,091$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.69 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 61c | 1,039$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.27 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 25c | 792.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 59c | 560$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Over | 51c | 494$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.42 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 485.87$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.69 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 388.54$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.87 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 43c | 348.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.79 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 66c | 324.08$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.67 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 300.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Under | 6c | 186.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 185.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 56c | 171.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 74c | 168.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 76c | 131.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 44c | 121.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 57c | 119$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…6d43backed Under | 21c | 93.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 25c | 93.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 76c | 78.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 24c | 70.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 59c | 60.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 55.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 24c | 54.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 76c | 52.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 69c | 43.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 41.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Under | 37c | 39.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 36c | 35.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 30.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 73c | 25.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 79c | 23.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 66c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 65c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…839bbacked Over | 52c | 21.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 73c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 59c | 17.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.