Middle East · resolved market
Israel withdraws from Syria before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1786db8d0cdccd17cdf42591cefd74eeb72e5c797040459f59453823299a893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 16c | 4,193$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.71 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…add0backed Yes | 16c | 3,170$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 3,091$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,035$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,837$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,487$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 1,128$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.69 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,050$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 995.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 2c | 917.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 915.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 879.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 73c | 789.33$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.02 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…0650backed Yes | 14c | 717.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 80c | 666$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 21c | 618.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 318.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…fe51backed Yes | 14c | 299.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…7ad0backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 17c | 240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a7…776bbacked Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 44cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc36c…36f0backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04af…06d7backed Yes | 12c | 103.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 100.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…e107backed Yes | 20c | 98.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 22c | 96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 90.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.