Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1cc0010cc4040fe207c62a3bc0e55a357142d3ecff9201b0260833457223cc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 25c | 3,596$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.19 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,102$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 77c | 842.89$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.2 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 640.3$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 369.6$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 75c | 289.07$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 288.77$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 241.79$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 234.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 72c | 205.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…7cb3backed No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 164.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 75c | 157.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 151$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 132$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 124.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 120.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 116.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 71c | 115.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 71c | 114.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 23c | 105.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 103.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 91.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 90.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 22c | 77.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 24c | 72.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 71.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 60.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 26c | 57.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 55.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 49.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 34c | 45.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 44.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 44.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 76c | 43.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 30c | 41.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 32c | 40.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 38c | 40.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 33c | 33.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 33.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 30.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 78c | 29.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 73c | 27.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 70c | 27.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 72c | 24.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 24.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 64c | 18.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 73c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.