Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd93c73174027be4a37d7bc0af5d0b07714f127cca6c86c14e3ecd3ce252c66a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 56c | 1,808$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.81 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 531.41$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 415.52$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 403.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 66c | 401.47$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 395.54$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 390.37$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 280.05$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 248.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed No | 6c | 233.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 218.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 49c | 210.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 34c | 199.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 188.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 34c | 174$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 168.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 20c | 167.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 153.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 114.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…80dfbacked Yes | 54c | 102.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 101$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 98.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 45c | 94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 86.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 81.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 32c | 74.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 57c | 73.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 31c | 71.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 70.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 61.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 27c | 60.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 59.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 72c | 58.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 65c | 57.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 52c | 56.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…64d7backed Yes | 65c | 53.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 34c | 52.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 50.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 69c | 50.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 67c | 49.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 48.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 78c | 48.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 53c | 48.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 69c | 47.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 47.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 47.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 51c | 46.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 66c | 45.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 47c | 42.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…2d3abacked Yes | 71c | 42.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 37.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…0539backed No | 32c | 36.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 75c | 35.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 35.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 30c | 34.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 45c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 34c | 31.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 41c | 28.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442c…3db8backed Yes | 79c | 28.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 50c | 26.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked Yes | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 58c | 24.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…66efbacked Yes | 71c | 24.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 72c | 22.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 48c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 54c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 49c | 20.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 53c | 19.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 53c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…b917backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.