Earnings · resolved market
Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d7ebaa2951adedf0e111c0555e29426755d005dedb43ce71bf7d1c065a22b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 60c | 1,991$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.09 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 37c | 894.98$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.18 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 600$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 552.56$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.28 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…fddbbacked Yes | 42c | 332$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 29c | 314.32$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 35c | 277.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 58c | 205.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…a56bbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 146$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 57c | 86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 57c | 84.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 70.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 50.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.