Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc20a8c8c74aba3ca6953e3f72b8137699e6ce2b18dcba1d0397186c3ca3038b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 14c | 549.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed No | 80c | 280.96$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 277.95$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.57 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 260$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 226.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 200.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 27c | 172$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 58c | 163.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 66c | 155.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 149.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 65c | 143.64$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 15c | 135.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 25c | 126.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6284…ac6cbacked Yes | 33c | 126.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 29c | 124.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 26c | 124.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 123.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 62c | 116.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 75c | 113$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 23c | 109$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 102.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 100.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 98.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 31c | 98.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 70c | 91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 70c | 84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 34c | 83.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 73c | 65.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…876ebacked Yes | 25c | 63.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 20c | 59.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658c…908bbacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 66c | 52.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 36c | 51.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 23c | 51.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 33c | 51.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed No | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 45c | 44.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 75c | 43.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 72c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 41.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 31c | 38.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 29c | 35.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 35.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 42c | 34.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 33c | 34.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 55c | 33.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 31.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 48c | 30.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…49c5backed Yes | 38c | 29.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed No | 73c | 29.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0329backed Yes | 52c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 27.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 78c | 26.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 24.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed No | 72c | 20.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 18.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 78c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 73c | 15.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.