Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52fa5169ccddbfa4e69c6d2e76338e74dd52811ba202bf2867142eac8232cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 779.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 367$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 315.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed Yes | 65c | 276.6$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 272.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 263.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 38c | 228.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 168.82$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 9c | 159.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 145.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 140.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 136.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 54c | 126.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 61c | 92.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 42c | 76.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 75.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 52c | 74.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 52.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 50.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 50.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 49.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 48.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 47.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 71c | 41.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 80c | 37.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 62c | 32.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 39c | 32.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 60c | 31.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…c734backed Yes | 40c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 50c | 28.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 38c | 27.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 21.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 68c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.