Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2788c8a59abe68989255e1477193e053136ef82f55ce8c65f1b55d79df0bcb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 1,126$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 835.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.98 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe51f…473dbacked Yes | 56c | 626.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 42c | 614.21$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.19 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 456.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 400$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 382.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 315.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 298.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 278.08$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 265.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 261.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 39c | 257.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 224.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 212.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 188.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 78c | 184$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 182$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.08 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 172.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 169.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 157.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 51c | 149.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 26c | 148.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 52c | 146.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 10c | 132.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 53c | 116.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 39c | 100.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 59c | 98.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 87.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 45c | 85.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 84.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 84.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 81.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 37c | 81.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked No | 45c | 61.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 58.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 43c | 58.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 42c | 55.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 53.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 55c | 52.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 51.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 26c | 50.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 48.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 40.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed No | 47c | 38.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 44c | 38.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 44c | 38.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 41c | 36.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 39c | 33.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 59c | 33.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 40c | 33.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 32.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 30.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…abfdbacked Yes | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 64c | 27.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 25.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 61c | 25.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 77c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 66c | 21.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 68c | 16.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.