Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc28a6ea8958317c51d10291cb25cdf8aaa5e3f8a5f6e2f49241f3c8134baf791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 10c | 1,157$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc53d…4346backed No | 1c | 915.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 716.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 7c | 680.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 9c | 461.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 10c | 401.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 15c | 323.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 286$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 14c | 197$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…a845backed No | 26c | 193.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 173.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 148$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 122.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 119.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 79c | 116$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…fddbbacked No | 21c | 102.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 11c | 101.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 96.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 82.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 78c | 77.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 21c | 71.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 20c | 63.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…c685backed No | 22c | 60.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…2838backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb192…ebc8backed Yes | 74c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?this page
- Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.