MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc29dcff451d2de45b6477f17b5ad6c3aafe2dbfa502cd0ef9c2aacb299f38e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 8,549$3,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,793.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…fb0fbacked Under | 57c | 7,027$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,026.67 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 3,040$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 2,879$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.02 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 2,197$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.21 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 44c | 2,118$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.96 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 1,745$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 43c | 1,395$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 59c | 1,149$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.09 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 60c | 1,053$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.2 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 1,038$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 40c | 1,027$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.79 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 31c | 530.07$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 473.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 42c | 456.18$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.66 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…45d6backed Under | 74c | 319.85$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 57c | 298.93$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 15c | 282.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 45c | 235.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 60c | 201.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 57c | 136.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Under | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 44c | 130.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 40c | 127.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 90.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 30c | 87.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 41c | 47.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 39c | 44.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…2d10backed Over | 47c | 31.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 63c | 31.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Under | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…323abacked Under | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 57c | 24.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Over | 63c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 68c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.