MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9caa2101137b7877b7b9149b23e5fd7156572d50c2dcae00fb1999daddd8d8ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 1,391$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 1,126$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.66 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 647.41$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.6 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 637.64$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.22 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 524$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 466.15$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 308$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 295$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.85 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 292.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 183.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 146.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 136.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 112.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 83.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 80.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 71.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 61.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 54.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 44.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 41.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 37.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 35.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…bdbabacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 32.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 25.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.