TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,821 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a05…9caebacked Yes2c2,354$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked No71c652.73$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.919458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes42c422.41$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.071,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c419.52$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.788,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes28c310.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.921,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes46c309.09$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No62c264.38$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2651762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes34c232.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.812046.7%56 W · 64 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No58c231.5$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.682,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c215.41$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.415,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No69c190.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.711,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes56c147.03$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.672,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes30c143.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.962,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No56c136.07$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No60c135$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5763757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No60c128.97$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5980560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes53c123.34$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7986952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No62c119.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.591,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c119.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.438,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes23c113.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6717536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c110.89$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.393,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No64c108.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9992678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No50c105$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.054,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes41c99.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7441331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.715,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.44,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No75c95.33$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes41c95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c92.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes40c86.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3516836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c86.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No64c85.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9354547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes43c85.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes37c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No64c76.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.672,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes41c75.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3115047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.567,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes51c72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes33c70.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.324732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No53c67.88$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.072,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c67.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.976,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No59c60.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.792,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.675,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c58.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c58.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.94,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.846,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked Yes42c54.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No55c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.333350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes36c51.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.580130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes31c51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8135137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes36c50.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb56c…30f3backed Yes33c50.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410455.8%58 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.514134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.58240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No59c49.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4943663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes41c49.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2923538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes44c45.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd113…6c00backed No64c45.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.31944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No57c43.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes36c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.982,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes38c40.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4217033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes50c40.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.23,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes31c39.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2215749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No59c38.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.983,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes40c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.880735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No72c36.6$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.257252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No57c36.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.769846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No61c35.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.961,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No54c35.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.41,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.653353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes42c33.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.128943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…4c27backed No54c32.61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae92…329ebacked Yes42c32.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.692450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes38c32.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4245253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No58c32.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5870148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No64c32.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.62,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No56c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.988450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No39c31.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.144,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0db1…6272backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944f…83d3backed Yes38c30.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No52c30.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.34,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No59c29.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9544567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No54c27.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3913862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e72…bd5dbacked No61c26.27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.136065%39 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes42c26.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0241051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed No78c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7219148.7%93 W · 98 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No59c25.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7406…162bbacked No64c25.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.031450%7 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No58c25.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.651,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.351,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.