Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc47237f66029306fcca5e278683092bea2cacc19081050d5e042c5bbed63792c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a05…9caebacked Yes | 2c | 2,354$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 71c | 652.73$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.91 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 422.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.07 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 419.52$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 310.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 309.09$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 62c | 264.38$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 34c | 232.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 231.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 215.41$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 190.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 147.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 143.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 136.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 135$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 128.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 53c | 123.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 119.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 119.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 23c | 113.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 110.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 108.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 41c | 99.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 75c | 95.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 92.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 40c | 86.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 86.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 64c | 85.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 43c | 85.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 76.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 41c | 75.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 51c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 33c | 70.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 67.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 67.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 60.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 58.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 58.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 51.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 50.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 33c | 50.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 41c | 49.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 44c | 45.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…6c00backed No | 64c | 45.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 57c | 43.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 38c | 40.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 50c | 40.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 31c | 39.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 72c | 36.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 57c | 36.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 35.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 35.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 42c | 33.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…4c27backed No | 54c | 32.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 42c | 32.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 38c | 32.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 58c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 32.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 31.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed Yes | 38c | 30.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 52c | 30.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 59c | 29.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 54c | 27.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 61c | 26.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 42c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 25.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…162bbacked No | 64c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.