Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc563431170ebf00c96f6eeaab1808d2101767346e7303b93c26df416ab96abbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 52c | 5,747$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,731.91 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 49c | 2,750$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.12 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 1,313$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 56c | 800$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 48c | 510.89$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.13 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 473.63$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.77 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 11c | 464.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 428.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 402.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 50c | 352.7$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 50c | 337$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 50c | 302.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 51c | 278$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 48c | 253.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 250$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 245.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 57c | 236.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 62c | 203.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 15c | 203.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 192.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 61c | 190$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 53c | 183$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 43c | 170.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…7555backed No | 49c | 163$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 161.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 156$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 52c | 147.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 52c | 146$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 143.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 55c | 142$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 51c | 140.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 52c | 136.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 134.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 131.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 51c | 128.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 124.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 36c | 123.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 120.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 62c | 120.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 57c | 118.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 118$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 116.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 109.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 52c | 108$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 108$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 107.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 105.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 50c | 103.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 53c | 103.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 74c | 101.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 47c | 99.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 95.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 37c | 93.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…598ebacked Yes | 51c | 90.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 29c | 89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 58c | 87.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed No | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 83.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…38fabacked Yes | 51c | 80.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 77.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 69.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 68c | 69.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 66.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…dcdebacked Yes | 44c | 65.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 49c | 53.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 49c | 52.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed Yes | 57c | 52.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 59c | 51.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 50.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed No | 52c | 50.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 33c | 49.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 48c | 49.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 32c | 49.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 47.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 58c | 47.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…b7aabacked Yes | 57c | 46.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.