TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Miguel Damas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cezar Cretuof Cezar Cretu, Miguel Damas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$229,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$276,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,179 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb399…608ebacked Cezar Cretu51c33,611$17,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,605.263246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Miguel Damas43c13,397$5,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,771.529,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Miguel Damas34c10,548$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,55036544.9%164 W · 201 L-20.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Cezar Cretu51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90018148.1%87 W · 94 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Miguel Damas35c9,145$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180.3211,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Miguel Damas9c8,526$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.886149.2%30 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cezar Cretu69c6,290$4,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.174,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Miguel Damas33c6,069$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00144032.7%144 W · 296 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f5…ab8cbacked Miguel Damas19c6,063$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.251637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Miguel Damas31c5,374$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.481,51224.1%364 W · 1,148 L-41.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77aa…9bd5backed Miguel Damas29c3,287$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cezar Cretu60c2,933$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.578,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Cezar Cretu65c1,874$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.931,00857.7%582 W · 426 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Miguel Damas15c1,623$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Miguel Damas15c1,570$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.61,40442.8%601 W · 803 L-31.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Miguel Damas33c1,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021246.2%98 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Miguel Damas19c1,406$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4556244.1%248 W · 314 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Miguel Damas19c1,363$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.896035%21 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Miguel Damas43c1,356$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.525,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5843…e8e1backed Miguel Damas47c1,151$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6d…27bbbacked Cezar Cretu68c1,112$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3561457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Cezar Cretu70c1,056$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.291,76645.9%810 W · 956 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b96…cea8backed Miguel Damas19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006731.3%21 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+33.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0be5…cf29backed Miguel Damas42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4202544%11 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+61%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Miguel Damas27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27014338.5%55 W · 88 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Cezar Cretu51c971.41$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.9931653.2%168 W · 148 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked Miguel Damas33c909.09$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014651.4%75 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Miguel Damas17c732.24$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.484,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5f…7ed6backed Cezar Cretu54c725.35$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3311050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Miguel Damas27c689.79$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.861,82446.5%849 W · 975 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cezar Cretu59c683.5$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.246,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Miguel Damas15c668.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9237849.2%186 W · 192 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Miguel Damas32c652.6$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8443652.1%227 W · 209 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0926…6721backed Miguel Damas29c645.16$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.11827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x425a…6015backed Cezar Cretu53c625$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick51cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Miguel Damas39c618.48$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.923,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Miguel Damas21c600$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12649250.6%249 W · 243 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Miguel Damas22c550$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2541748.2%201 W · 216 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Miguel Damas46c543.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25039256.6%222 W · 170 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db8…0ed7backed Miguel Damas19c530$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.79649%47 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35d…102abacked Cezar Cretu55c524.78$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.158344.6%37 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Miguel Damas51c500$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.639,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x013e…65ddbacked Cezar Cretu68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Cezar Cretu52c496.69$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.7853946.9%253 W · 286 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Cezar Cretu59c476.64$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6822341.3%92 W · 131 L-20.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c76…fcc2backed Cezar Cretu50c469.16$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.54771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+44.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Cezar Cretu67c451.71$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.052,83947.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Miguel Damas49c448.04$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3868139.1%266 W · 415 L-30.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Miguel Damas34c399.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13699139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a8…ad06backed Cezar Cretu52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.621580%12 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+60.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9d2a…d5d0backed Cezar Cretu56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1425062.8%157 W · 93 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c9…f4dabacked Cezar Cretu57c336.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.997149.3%35 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Miguel Damas45c326.67$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471,05340.9%431 W · 622 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a14…9fe4backed Miguel Damas17c312.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1141535.4%147 W · 268 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b0…5294backed Miguel Damas33c305$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6546650.2%234 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2b…9b9ebacked Miguel Damas46c303.04$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.45066%33 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf44…3a7ebacked Cezar Cretu53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.023455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Miguel Damas24c275$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668043.8%35 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Cezar Cretu59c261.37$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7899148.6%482 W · 509 L+43.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Miguel Damas17c260$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.970829.1%206 W · 502 L+0.6wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b49…d827backed Cezar Cretu49c258$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.582955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Miguel Damas21c215.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.233,45738.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L-15.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Miguel Damas14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,00049.8%498 W · 502 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Cezar Cretu60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Miguel Damas50c197.8$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.929237.7%110 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Cezar Cretu65c180.46$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1625855%142 W · 116 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebde…1de0backed Miguel Damas32c180$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.290834.1%310 W · 598 L-43.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Miguel Damas21c162.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7356926%148 W · 421 L-23.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Cezar Cretu55c154.84$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6845549.7%226 W · 229 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Miguel Damas26c153.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…3ad7backed Miguel Damas35c152.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4710342.7%44 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Cezar Cretu74c152.7$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.72075%15 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Miguel Damas48c152.45$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.581,74548.1%840 W · 905 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Miguel Damas18c149.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8847234.7%164 W · 308 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x940c…6f91backed Miguel Damas15c130.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.69657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+61.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Cezar Cretu79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5825451.6%131 W · 123 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Miguel Damas34c125.07$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.527,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Cezar Cretu62c117.24$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.921,87853.2%1,000 W · 878 L+30.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Cezar Cretu61c110.88$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0978248.3%378 W · 404 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02fd…104cbacked Cezar Cretu55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0931451.9%163 W · 151 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cezar Cretu50c105$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.54,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cezar Cretu77c103.64$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.174,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8dc8…c4f4backed Cezar Cretu45c101.84$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.011050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36cf…d3aebacked Cezar Cretu56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4445646.3%211 W · 245 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Cezar Cretu66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342,04347.8%977 W · 1,066 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6994…fc1fbacked Miguel Damas30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011145%50 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Miguel Damas18c99.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+37.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bc6…1cedbacked Miguel Damas19c97.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183312.1%4 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea6…b795backed Cezar Cretu78c97.12$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3157841%237 W · 341 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Miguel Damas52c96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.921,87759.4%1,115 W · 762 L+8.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58b…dd02backed Miguel Damas19c95.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.165030%15 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b75…adc8backed Miguel Damas22c95.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212035%7 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Cezar Cretu53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3449943.1%215 W · 284 L-16.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Cezar Cretu66c90.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9141664.4%268 W · 148 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e88…8a9bbacked Cezar Cretu57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d32…25a8backed Cezar Cretu78c84.23$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.739165.9%60 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed Miguel Damas15c83.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5841851.7%216 W · 202 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf3…2286backed Miguel Damas33c81.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.241435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Miguel Damas37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045139%176 W · 275 L+1.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Cezar Cretu77c80.09$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.035,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.