Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6325f3b38110c48547b0e190897bc4ac6823aa700f95759abbf2d606b15254a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 1,995$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,330$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 11c | 1,307$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 19c | 893.05$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 5c | 498.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 30c | 460.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.83 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 20c | 453.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 11c | 448.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 447.67$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 443.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 409.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 9c | 373.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 6c | 368.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 360.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 301.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 35c | 284.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 25c | 277.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 5c | 259.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 239.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 74c | 212.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 13c | 139.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 11c | 135.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de1…1f55backed Yes | 10c | 121.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 16c | 117.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 115.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 28c | 115.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 12c | 109.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 14c | 109.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 14c | 105.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 14c | 101.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 96.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…c158backed Yes | 13c | 96.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 26c | 93.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 13c | 85.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 14c | 79.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8250…ddb5backed Yes | 19c | 72.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 15c | 68.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 68.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 62.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 59.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…47dbbacked Yes | 18c | 55.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed No | 64c | 55.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 79c | 50.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 70c | 48.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 41.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 75c | 39.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 36c | 36.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 26.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 72c | 25.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 79c | 24.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 80c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…e792backed No | 77c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.