TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,993 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes2c2,300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes14c1,093$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108035%28 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes16c899.72$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7212329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes12c843.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes12c754.77$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8156424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes9c723.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.261,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes13c718.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1736819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes8c651.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5713010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes7c605.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8734918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0b…5464backed Yes12c563.81$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…42a6backed Yes22c562.3$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.423826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes19c539.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.414,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe56…700cbacked Yes4c534.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes9c527.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes7c499.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3686420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes8c471.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.488111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c450.55$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.856,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes18c449.81$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.388339.8%33 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3656118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c362.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.972,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes19c347.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.962,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes15c346$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.916335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes16c339.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7666944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No79c328.03$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0714372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked Yes14c325.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.513636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd663…6abcbacked Yes11c300.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…d8a6backed Yes21c280.24$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4770%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes20c250.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.168762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c245.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes23c245.43$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2711956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84a4…8cb2backed Yes26c243.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b1…2d82backed Yes10c242.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.294736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed Yes17c202.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7110154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes7c197.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9436057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes9c196.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.856137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04e5…89b4backed Yes24c190.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d4…23e8backed Yes6c190$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bcd…19c2backed Yes17c188.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No79c187.27$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.332,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1e…4cf3backed Yes19c174.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.662615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd354…4d78backed Yes18c163.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8710132.7%33 W · 68 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd36e…d63ebacked Yes17c161.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.92119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf721…2c26backed Yes17c149.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes28c140.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.072,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes23c137.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1714632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes20c134.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4686847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes11c134.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.384744.7%21 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes9c126.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes21c125.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1926828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes17c124.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5930428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x438b…9104backed Yes20c122.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adf…48cdbacked No75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302931%9 W · 20 L-6.2wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-57.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe6e1…6579backed Yes16c118.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.912857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c117.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.77,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes14c116.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5858732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes19c116.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3865627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb00…1942backed Yes15c114.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff06…03ddbacked Yes15c109.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c108.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.573,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes11c102.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.161,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes19c99.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1945127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6deb…f584backed Yes23c98.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.972623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2480…a04bbacked Yes20c97.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.87933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3afe…075dbacked Yes12c96.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No77c95.53$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed Yes14c92.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.999625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8e…31c0backed Yes21c91.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.591241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes11c91.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0225130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ea0…b107backed Yes14c86.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.288020%16 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…727bbacked Yes24c83.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes18c83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9414617.1%25 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c80.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cae…def2backed No79c78.77$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.543669.4%25 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c77.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x882f…5967backed Yes14c74.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.373414.7%5 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-61.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes14c73.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.331,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes20c69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.852935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab3e…86c9backed No73c66.87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.98785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick75cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x949f…3bbebacked Yes21c64.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No77c53.85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.377676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No80c51.56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5517633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.125449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…c0bfbacked Yes24c44.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No77c42.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.578068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No75c35.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7799961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed Yes29c35.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1521722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d91…f3f3backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No74c29.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No76c27.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.544,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No76c25.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.225655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No80c18.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6818878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No79c17.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6362555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed No76c13.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.172740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2df4…a56ebacked No78c12.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.841163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+70.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.