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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes2c2,948$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9438131%118 W · 263 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes8c2,762$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.414,50519.6%882 W · 3,623 L+47.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No65c2,713$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.1542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes36c2,222$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.91520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed Yes5c1,302$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.342944.8%13 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes5c927.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0123022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8be2…214bbacked Yes17c879.9$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.233520%7 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7ff…1957backed Yes11c599.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c583.21$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0857527.8%160 W · 415 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes21c521.11$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.88531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,73018%311 W · 1,419 L+73.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed No77c487.39$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.298151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes5c439.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes7c400.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1126828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e4…757dbacked Yes13c386.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.56825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes35c352.79$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes30c309.04$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3411938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26eb…c940backed Yes14c294.58$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.291729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c273.81$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ddc…a869backed No74c263.04$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.923450%17 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes19c261.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.162,29917.8%409 W · 1,890 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes19c242.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1845127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes17c242.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4293134%317 W · 614 L+53.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c236$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.156,85439.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L+266.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c231.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes7c224.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.518339.8%33 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes26c224.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3912329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c217.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.542,26539.6%896 W · 1,369 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes26c216.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.128149.4%40 W · 41 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c215.12$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.38,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No63c203.96$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes27c199.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5423035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes16c199.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3211515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33c…bf48backed Yes28c197.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.012326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c185.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7112,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No78c184.31$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6941070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No80c175.62$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.341,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c165.33$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.913,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes34c162.06$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.12832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes35c158.43$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.947728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes22c155.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.851,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes27c147.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.358824.8%146 W · 442 L-18.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…de0cbacked Yes13c140.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c137.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.021,84327.5%506 W · 1,337 L+23.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes22c134.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3887647.9%420 W · 456 L+40.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes35c133.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5853437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72b2…ffcabacked Yes20c132.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.17728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes17c127.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.942419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes36c121.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.557,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes23c119.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1910732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes35c117.31$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8228737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes27c116.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2954043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes15c110.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6329770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes20c104.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6719123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba04…310bbacked Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes29c94.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1d…818abacked Yes24c89.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.77616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes15c85.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.761,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No73c83.96$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.977,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed Yes37c80.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.92532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba1a…4f62backed Yes25c78.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae3…f897backed No66c70.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.982263.6%14 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes23c68.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes28c68.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0955942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes24c66.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b1…2d82backed No65c64.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.614736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes20c63.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5359125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No75c63.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.868160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes19c63.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1171333.5%239 W · 474 L+33.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3ee…23a6backed No66c61.77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.23562.9%22 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2480…a04bbacked No63c61.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2112467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ca…6964backed No76c56.91$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.46850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No65c56.56$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6412365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes22c56.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3343525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No78c51.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3410154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes21c50.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.719028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1781029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d87…a068backed Yes24c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No78c48.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7837067.6%250 W · 120 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No72c48.44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5610371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes30c47.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.214632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b06…ae19backed Yes24c46.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-69.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaa1…a961backed No70c42.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed No80c39.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0866327.8%184 W · 479 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No78c39.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.729558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes34c37.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.713036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff06…03ddbacked Yes28c36.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No77c32.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4811872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcafd…b861backed No77c30.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.947272.2%52 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.279363.4%503 W · 290 L-2.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No62c26.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105754.4%31 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.