TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1838…29b4backed No1c2,723$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked No59c1,171$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.7511930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No8c990.02$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.912,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed Yes51c708.42$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.242944.8%13 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes20c674.63$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.544,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes23c652.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.7520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No2c621.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1826458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes23c619.13$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.1356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No6c534.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd663…6abcbacked No6c530.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No62c496.47$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6311956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes41c435.08$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.466,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No46c429.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7316335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked Yes70c405.38$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.338946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No4c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes45c318.45$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.658151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No14c289.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6426828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes40c284.49$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.318339.8%33 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes37c269.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.7533018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No50c268.94$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.281,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes29c265.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.291,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No23c224.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c204.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba04…310bbacked Yes47c200$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1071450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes16c188.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.481,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c179.64$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.614,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes28c167.8$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4812329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c166.05$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.638,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes17c165.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c165.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.582,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes23c161.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.171,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed1…adf1backed Yes71c151.66$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.871346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes32c147.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8330428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes17c144.34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.894919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No30c141.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes17c132.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1986847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes70c126.89$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.073956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes60c123.95$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1210537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No61c120.56$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6332652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked No10c119.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23324.2%8 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c110.24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed No76c106.79$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No49c106.08$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.281,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26eb…c940backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ff…1957backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adf…48cdbacked No73c99.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.992931%9 W · 20 L-6.2wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-57.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No78c96.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9541070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No51c96.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.81,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes28c94.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3612735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No12c94.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1815937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes48c87.1$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7216738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c85.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes16c80.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.891,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3214645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No74c78.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.491,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No46c76.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8329770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83e4…757dbacked Yes45c75.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.65825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No71c75.49$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.912467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No40c73.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4831542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No45c73.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5110371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ddc…a869backed No76c73.2$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.633450%17 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28a5…6bc4backed No47c69.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes45c67.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3717643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes21c67.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6114632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes23c67.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.825536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No40c61.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6318041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8203…cab2backed Yes52c59.61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.421656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No22c56.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5511925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes19c55.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.722,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes34c51.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3823738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4010728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec4d…07b9backed No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.236033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No74c49.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4927167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed No62c48.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.98872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dbb…c0abbacked No42c47.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.889551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No51c42.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No36c40.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6620431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed Yes28c39.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.72532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc19…0c97backed Yes62c39.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b8c…d073backed Yes67c37.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.39742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed No75c36.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2623022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes48c35.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4529459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes63c33.54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3711161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No46c32.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7322344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes69c31.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.691,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.878663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No74c29.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes46c26.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.514839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No73c26.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3924149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed No74c25.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.599221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No67c22.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9832548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c21.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.