Tennis · resolved market

ATP Cincinnati - Fonseca vs. Atmane

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc66b52ea57f7009b426591721f9e96cf10b9b7b5ac6e06b8601ca0b8a887f5f7

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Atmaneof Fonseca, Atmane
Resolved: Aug 11, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $105,015
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,015 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5ef4…412cbacked Atmane	26c	25,890$6,854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,036.57	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Fonseca	74c	20,112$14,884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,883.64	93	54.8%51 W · 42 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+20%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Atmane	26c	13,460$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,960.4	143	45.5%65 W · 78 L	+7.8wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Fonseca	70c	8,995$6,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,264.93	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Atmane	60c	2,132$1,279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$852.93	669	49.6%332 W · 337 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Fonseca	73c	1,768$1,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,299.42	951	40.1%381 W · 570 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Fonseca	75c	1,416$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,054.61	159	57.2%91 W · 68 L	+15.8wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Atmane	25c	1,023$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765.96	70	28.6%20 W · 50 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Fonseca	74c	1,000$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740	316	50%158 W · 158 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Fonseca	75c	919.45$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.51	143	43.4%62 W · 81 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fonseca	35c	810$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.88	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Fonseca	75c	799$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.25	154	52.6%81 W · 73 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Atmane	23c	773.49$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595.59	122	31.1%38 W · 84 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Fonseca	71c	702.61$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Fonseca	74c	702.37$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.47	391	44.2%173 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Fonseca	75c	600$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448	129	54.3%70 W · 59 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Fonseca	76c	572.99$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.47	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2719…28ddbacked Fonseca	69c	520.27$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.08	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Fonseca	71c	518.34$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.04	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Fonseca	67c	500$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335	819	38.9%319 W · 500 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Fonseca	46c	500$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.5	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	-4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Fonseca	40c	499.99$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…d3d0backed Atmane	25c	469.11$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.44	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dae…c996backed Atmane	25c	440$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Atmane	26c	440$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.6	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Atmane	21c	423.69$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.27	627	42.4%266 W · 361 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Atmane	24c	416.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.67	480	43.3%208 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Fonseca	77c	387.69$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	253	52.2%132 W · 121 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Atmane	26c	386.54$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.54	639	42.4%271 W · 368 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Atmane	22c	354.71$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.67	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Fonseca	27c	354.15$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.34	178	33.1%59 W · 119 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Atmane	60c	333.33$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.33	114	57.9%66 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Fonseca	45c	319.85$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.08	2,766	47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L	+44.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Atmane	24c	277.09$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.59	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Fonseca	76c	266.67$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.67	872	51.1%446 W · 426 L	+8.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Fonseca	16c	255$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.65	119	27.7%33 W · 86 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Fonseca	75c	243.01$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.26	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Fonseca	9c	227.5$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	645	40.2%259 W · 386 L	-19.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Atmane	23c	224.87$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.15	204	31.4%64 W · 140 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Atmane	24c	217.45$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.52	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fonseca	52c	192.66$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.07	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Fonseca	78c	179.49$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	383	56.9%218 W · 165 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Atmane	65c	173$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.9	1,107	42.8%474 W · 633 L	-20.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc921…5279backed Fonseca	78c	163.48$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.59	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Atmane	25c	160$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	252	44.4%112 W · 140 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked Atmane	24c	138.96$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.61	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+3.7wins	+0.20per pick	38cpaid	+62%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Atmane	23c	138.15$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.36	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Fonseca	75c	133.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	177	67.2%119 W · 58 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Fonseca	78c	128.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	731	47.9%350 W · 381 L	-16.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Fonseca	53c	109.34$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.29	321	41.1%132 W · 189 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Fonseca	56c	107.14$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	125	60%75 W · 50 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d04…7102backed Atmane	25c	80$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+81.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Atmane	23c	78$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.06	1,489	32.6%486 W · 1,003 L	+22.2wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Fonseca	73c	68.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fonseca	77c	64.94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	431	58.2%251 W · 180 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0667…42e1backed Fonseca	78c	64.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.07	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f7…facbbacked Fonseca	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Fonseca	77c	50$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	629	52.1%328 W · 301 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ca…198bbacked Fonseca	75c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Fonseca	78c	40$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	312	55.4%173 W · 139 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Fonseca	41c	28.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6fb…2b2abacked Fonseca	77c	25.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	75%33 W · 11 L	+5.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae90…c05fbacked Fonseca	52c	19.89$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7580…cb71backed Fonseca	78c	17.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe259…b890backed Atmane	79c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.18	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

ATP Cincinnati - Fonseca vs. Atmane

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market