TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof PlayTime, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed PlayTime41c62,024$25,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,314.321,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Natus Vincere54c27,037$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,437.1740051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Natus Vincere53c8,040$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,818.841944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed PlayTime45c5,924$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.4924251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Natus Vincere64c5,414$3,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.6229042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Natus Vincere61c3,333$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.8753764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere70c3,043$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Natus Vincere58c2,585$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.4835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked PlayTime43c2,414$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.2115957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere75c2,288$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.792,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere54c1,749$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.771,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed PlayTime25c1,656$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.0143738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Natus Vincere63c1,558$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.5847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Natus Vincere72c1,547$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.6822853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere54c1,500$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere52c1,101$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.471,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere63c1,026$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.0845750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere78c1,000$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.51,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Natus Vincere53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47017146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Natus Vincere55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.9980544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed PlayTime4c950.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.126132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere73c793.75$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere58c790.45$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.021,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere66c782$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.581,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked PlayTime17c743.3$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.781,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed PlayTime15c701.4$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4755147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere67c659.52$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.5468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed PlayTime10c596.53$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.351,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere69c573.93$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.6689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PlayTime41c527.34$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.662,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere68c507.58$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.071,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed PlayTime9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4556548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Natus Vincere55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22529143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Natus Vincere54c494.44$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.442857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbf…c53cbacked Natus Vincere56c410.71$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.712458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere65c374.96$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.171,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere76c348.59$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.271,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked PlayTime34c299.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.570052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Natus Vincere55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7348053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Natus Vincere55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7348054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PlayTime8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2092056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4dbb…e5bcbacked PlayTime5c245.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.363345.5%15 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ea8…0491backed Natus Vincere52c230$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.524041.3%99 W · 141 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Natus Vincere58c209$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7837745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Natus Vincere73c205.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7850053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Natus Vincere75c198.93$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked PlayTime40c185.41$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7452649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7be8…0f50backed PlayTime44c180.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.964860.4%29 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked Natus Vincere75c177$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2519352.3%101 W · 92 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed PlayTime28c175.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Natus Vincere61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.567555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6388166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed PlayTime9c133.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1257654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere70c130.7$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0753139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Natus Vincere50c113.46$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.737541.3%31 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Natus Vincere75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2519856.1%111 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Natus Vincere74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2665863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5056243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed PlayTime41c82.73$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9241037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked PlayTime19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed PlayTime46c76.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3537252.7%196 W · 176 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed Natus Vincere75c76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1916152.2%84 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Natus Vincere52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3638142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed PlayTime45c58.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3435948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked PlayTime41c53.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216959.2%100 W · 69 L+14.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf883…b8b4backed Natus Vincere66c53.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0318764.7%121 W · 66 L+17.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+15%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed PlayTime33c50.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4515549%76 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Natus Vincere53c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6233445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee3…7c36backed PlayTime46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024131.5%76 W · 165 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed PlayTime26c40.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6927357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Natus Vincere55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1830643.5%133 W · 173 L-22.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked PlayTime45c37.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9516328.8%47 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b24…e53bbacked PlayTime32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Natus Vincere52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.418347%86 W · 97 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a7…b63abacked PlayTime42c29.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Natus Vincere53c29.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8414154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…66d1backed Natus Vincere66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.812258.2%71 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Natus Vincere67c15.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2189238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.