Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6d1340280398b55af0a679347065764df661738c9d02de5aca87c6994f12e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde16…033bbacked No | 77c | 1,173$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.17 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 58c | 704.15$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.49 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 394$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 388.32$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 357.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 309.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 29c | 248$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 35c | 180.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 79c | 176$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 27c | 133.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 128.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 114.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 114.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 108.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 59c | 107.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 104.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 30c | 103.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 49c | 100.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 47c | 100.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 100.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 98.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 95.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 69c | 90.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 85.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 33c | 84.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 73c | 82.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 81.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 75.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 61c | 72.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 70.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…5993backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 66.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 64.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 64.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed Yes | 29c | 63.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 67c | 62.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 67c | 60.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 32c | 57.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked No | 60c | 53.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 53.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 50.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 59c | 50.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 33c | 46.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 45.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 43.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 57c | 43.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 43.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 39c | 43.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 26c | 40.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…6805backed Yes | 33c | 39.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 64c | 38.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 50c | 37.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 36.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 68c | 32.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 31.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 44c | 29.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 67c | 28.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 74c | 27.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 27.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 59c | 24.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 23.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 45c | 23.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.