NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ef3e66f7e37b63f817a34d8eeb8bdda766ff230a6094409897d5cc764beb61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 1,296$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.48 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…07adbacked Under | 53c | 939.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 836.54$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.41 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Over | 32c | 781.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 24c | 522.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 58c | 516.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.6 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…bbccbacked Over | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 42c | 499.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.84 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 79c | 498.94$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.17 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 20c | 463$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.4 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 61c | 411.73$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…6d85backed Under | 49c | 409.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 20c | 401.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.17 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 32c | 397.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.05 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 48c | 364.9$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 315.07$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 47c | 265.68$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 79c | 262.28$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.27 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 191 | 53.4%102 W · 89 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Under | 79c | 253.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 60c | 239.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 35c | 204.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8af8…adc5backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 188.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.14 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 187.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 64c | 185.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed Under | 55c | 181.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 78c | 178$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 21c | 175.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 26c | 157.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 147.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 145.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 74c | 129.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 119.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Under | 70c | 117$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Over | 10c | 100.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…4d94backed Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 52c | 93.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 41c | 90.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…45aabacked Under | 77c | 80.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 35c | 79.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 54c | 75.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 44c | 70.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 68c | 68.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 65c | 67.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 51c | 65.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 43c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 57c | 62.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…40fcbacked Under | 64c | 55.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 34c | 54.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 79c | 49.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6e…c21abacked Over | 41c | 42.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Over | 77c | 39.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 78c | 29.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 56c | 21.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Under | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 69c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd6…3beebacked Under | 66c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Ducks vs. Golden KnightsDucks won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.